Asian stocks rose Friday after data showing another contraction in the US economy boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of interest rate hikes.
After an extended period of pessimism on trading floors fuelled by soaring inflation and the central bank’s monetary tightening campaign, investors are beginning to speculate that the market may have reached its nadir.
The world’s top economy shrank 0.9 percent in April-June following a 1.6 percent retreat in the first quarter as it was buffeted by the four-decade spike in inflation and rising borrowing costs.
But the reading was taken as a sign of good news, as it could give the Fed room to take its foot off the pedal, with Treasury yields — considered a barometer of future interest rates — easing.
Officials are expected to continue lifting rates, but analysts estimate they will announce a 50-basis-point rise in September, compared with 75 at the past two meetings.
And analysts said the quick, sharp pace of increases would allow the bank to begin cutting sooner in 2023 while others said any recession would likely only be shallow and short.
The news saw all three main indexes on Wall Street rally more than one percent, with tech firms — which are susceptible to higher rates — leading the way.
The gains extended a rally Wednesday that came after Fed chief Jerome Powell hinted that the bank could start to take it easier in its tightening.
Most of Asia followed suit, with Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Jakarta and Wellington all up. However, Hong Kong dropped and Shanghai struggled.
The prospect of US rates not rising as fast as previously expected hit the dollar, which has soared in recent months against most other currencies.
The greenback dropped below 135 yen Thursday for the first time since July 6, having hit a 24-year high of 139.39 yen just two weeks ago.
A second successive contraction is widely considered a technical recession, though it is not officially considered so in the United States until identified as such by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
But while debate rages over that issue, the general consensus is that the economy is struggling.
“The more important point is that the economy has quickly lost steam in the face of four-decade high inflation, rapidly rising borrowing costs, and a general tightening in financial conditions,” Sal Guatieri, of BMO Capital Markets, wrote.
The retreat in the US economy comes as China also struggles, hit by painful Covid-induced lockdowns in major cities including Shanghai and Beijing that hammered all sectors and supply chains.
On Thursday, the country’s leadership offered a dour assessment of the world’s number two economy but offered no plans to stimulate growth, leaving traders disappointed.