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Global trade defied expectations to collapse by 13 to 32% last year
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2021 rebound will be dependent on vaccine programmes, easing geopolitical tensions, DMCC says
Global trade is set for a strong recovery in 2021, though the recovery will be dependent on the roll out of vaccines and easing geopolitical tensions, according to a report by Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC).
The report titled The Future of Trade said the economy was more resilient during the pandemic and the fears that global trade would collapse by 13 to 32 percent last year “did not materialise”.
“It’s estimated that global trade and goods dropped by just 5.3 percent during 2020 and was supported in part by the unprecedented policy measures implemented by governments to shore up their economies, so we’re actually seeing a much brighter picture than predicted,” the chief operating officer at the DMCC, Feryal Ahmadi, told The National News.
“This is the start of the global economic recovery underpinned by trade growth, which is very positive,” she added.
However, the future of global trade is dependent on the global vaccine drive and governments’ ability to respond quickly to new waves and variants of Covid-19, according to the DMCC which presides over companies involved in the trade of commodities that range from pulses to diamonds.
Also key to the outlook is the relationship between the US and China, expected to be the leading drivers of global economic growth this year, and the adoption of new technologies in ports and the shipping industry to facilitate the rise of e-commerce.
Global trade, according to the World Trade Organisation, is expected to increase by 8 per cent this year. This will help drive economic growth of 5.6 percent boosted by US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion spending package. Trade growth of 4 per cent is expected in 2022.