Vienna, Austria – OPEC Thursday predicted world oil demand to grow by a healthy 2.2 mb/d, to 104.25 mb/d in 2024, raising its 2023 forecast to 2.4 mb/d, following an upward revision of about 0.1 mbn/d from last month’s assessment.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report, the global organization said the World GDP growth in 2024 is forecast at 2.5 percent, slightly below this year’s expected growth level of 2.6 percent.
“Key oil-consuming countries, including China and India, along with some other developing economies in Asia, will continue their healthy growth levels and be responsible for around half of next year’s global economic growth,” OPEC said in a statement. “This is under the assumption that general inflation will continue retraction in 2H23 and 2024. Tight monetary policies are also assumed to continue and key policy rates to peak by the end of 2023. Moreover, central banks are expected to engage in more accommodative monetary policies by 2H24.”
The world economic growth in 2023 is to remain broadly unchanged at 2.6 percent, according to the organisation, with the initial forecast for 2024 economic growth expected at 2.5 percent.
Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised up in the report by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 1.0 mb/d higher than in 2022. Based on the initial world oil demand and non-OPEC supply forecast for 2024, demand for OPEC crude is expected to reach 30.2 mb/d, 0.8 mb/d higher than the 2023 level.