Some economists believe that a nation’s global standing is linked to the international success and visibility of its homegrown brands, which serve as powerful symbols of its economic vitality, soft power and cultural influence. Qatar Airways and Al Jazeera are two global brands from Qatar along with the strong cultural showcasing through 2022 FIFA World Cup.
Possessing cash and natural resources is not a cause of celebration but how the cash and energy resources are utilized for overall growth is a definite reason for jubilation. Without an iota of doubt, Qatar falls in the jubilation category.
Instead of being overly aggressive with abundant cash flows, Qatar’s economic policies are a well-balanced fusion of sustainability, assertiveness and dynamism. The impact of astute policies is self-evident.
Last week, the World Bank said that it expects Qatar’s real GDP growth to reach 2.8 percent as the country’s public fiscal surpluses remained strong.
In its report released on December 4, 2025, the World Bank states that non-oil sectors in Qatar have maintained their strength even amid declining oil and gas prices. It adds that the expansion of the North Field will drive a substantial increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, further strengthening Qatar’s role in meeting global market needs.
The report highlights three key themes: the evolution of economic diversification indicators over the past decade; tracking macroeconomic developments; and spotlighting digital transformation, all against a backdrop of global uncertainty and oil market volatility.
Standard Chartered’s forecast about Qatar is more ambitious than the World Bank. In a report titled “Global Focus – Economic Outlook H2-2025”, the British multinational bank says Qatar continues to stand out for its resilience and forward-looking policies and the bank maintains its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Qatar at four percent, while raising the 2026 forecast to 5.5 percent.
Importantly, the Standard Chartered report sees Qatar’s real GDP per capita rising to approximately US$110,000 by 2026 and this increase is likely to support the country’s transition toward developed market status and potential inclusion in various emerging market indices.
In a note about economic diversification, Doha-based consulting firm Soutien says the non-hydrocarbon sector, currently accounting for over 60 percent of the GDP, is a key economic driver, led by tourism, financial services and trade.
“Non-hydrocarbon growth increased in Q4, 2024 to 6.1 percent year on year, the fastest in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC),” it says.
While economies in the GCC continue to rely on oil and gas revenues for public expenditure and growth policies, Qatar is a nation undergoing an immense transition in terms of economic diversification.
According to a Ministry of Finance update reported by Qatar News Agency, the country’s public budget recorded a deficit of US$393.3 million during the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), which was financed through debt instruments.
Total revenues in Q3 2025 were US$13.5 billion, a decrease of 4.1 percent compared to Q3 of 2024. Total expenditure stood at US$13.90 billion; a decrease of 1.2 percent compared to the same quarter of 2024.
While oil revenues during the third quarter of 2025 amounted to US$11.9 billion, the non-oil revenues reached US$1.59 billion, based on an average oil price of US$68.1 per barrel during the same period. It means that non-oil sector contributed 11.7 percent of the total Qatari revenues in Q3 2025.
Even though oil contributed close to 88 percent of the third quarter revenues, there has been an overall increase in non-oil economy.
Mentioning the Q2 2025, Qatar’s National Planning Council (NPC) says non-hydrocarbon activities accounted for 65.6 percent of real GDP, with value added reaching US$32.77 billion in Q2 2025, compared to US$31.69 billion in the same period of 2024. This reflects a year-on-year increase of 3.4 percent, underscoring the effectiveness of diversification policies outlined in the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3) and Qatar National Vision 2030.
The NPC further added that within the non-hydrocarbon economy, the fastest-growing activities on a year-on-year basis were – Agriculture, forestry and fishing (+15.8 percent); accommodation and food services (+13.4 percent); arts, entertainment and recreation (+8.9 percent); wholesale and retail trade (+8.8 percent); and construction (+8.7 percent).
Gradually, Qatar is accelerating diversification under the NDS3 with a strong focus on a knowledge-driven economy. These efforts are reinforced by the digital agenda 2030, which was introduced in March 2024 to advance digital innovation, entrepreneurship, and e-government services and supported by a US$2.5 billion government investment package in Artificial Intelligence.
Parallel investments in clean technologies, carbon capture, and green hydrogen target a 25 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, according to the World Bank.
Qatar’s medium-term economic outlook is strong, underpinned by LNG expansion. Real GDP growth is projected to reach 2.8 percent in 2025, rising to 5.3 percent in 2026 and peaking at 6.8 percent in 2027, it says.
Hydrocarbon output will drive much of this expansion, growing from three percent in 2025 to 15 percent in 2027, as the North Field expansion boosts LNG production by nearly 50 percent to 118 million tons per annum by 2027.
Non-hydrocarbon growth will remain robust, rising to 3.6 percent in 2025 and averaging four percent between 2026 and 2027, supported by tourism, spillovers from LNG investments, and the continuation of structural reforms.
Qatari Inflation is expected to edge up to 1.2 percent in 2025 due to higher food prices and the impact of a weaker US dollar which will be reflected in higher imported inflation and averaging around two percent in 2026–27, says the World Bank, adding the currency peg to the US dollar will continue to provide a strong nominal anchor.
However, Qatar faces downside risks from a deeper global economic slowdown that could weaken energy demand and LNG prices amid potential supply surpluses. Also, geopolitical tensions, and increased trade exposure to China add to those vulnerabilities, though the scale of upcoming LNG expansion, strong tourism and domestic investments provide some resilience against these challenges.
Despite external risks, Qatar’s long-term rating is stable. Moody’s AA2 rating in the first week of December suggests that Qatar is a high-grade, investment quality sovereign issuer with very low credit risk, indicating strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Fitch, another global rating agency, has accorded Qatar AA rating which signifies very high credit quality and an exceptionally low risk of default.
It’s highly likely that a stable and low-risk credit rating of Qatar has prompted US Department of State to advise American investors in favor of Qatar. In October, the US administration report said that there are new opportunities for foreign investments in Qatar following the government’s economic spending plans.
“For 2025, the government allocated nearly US$17 billion for major projects. The budget includes US$5.3 billion for education, US$6 billion for health, and US$6 billion in municipal spending.
“The budget emphasizes private sector roles and public-private partnerships. The government plans to nearly double its LNG production, its primary source of revenue, from 77 to 142 million metric tons per year before the end of 2030, offering significant investment opportunities in upstream and downstream sectors.
“Qatar’s third National Development Strategy, for 2024-2030, aims to diversify the economy through FDI, targeting $100 billion in inward FDI and reducing business registration time to one day,” said the US Department of State in a report titled: 2025 Qatar Investment Climate Statement.
Also, Qatar scores very high on the Index of Economic Freedom by the conservative right-wing think tank Heritage Foundation. The Washington D.C.-based group in its 2025 ranking says that Qatar’s economic freedom score is higher than the world and regional averages. Qatar’s economy is considered “mostly free” according to the 2025 Index.
Qatar’s global rank is 27 as the nation has improved its entrepreneurial environment and broadened its economic base.
The foundations of economic freedom are relatively solid, and the regulatory system is flexible, it says, adding that the country’s open trade regime and growing status as a regional financial hub have encouraged more diversified private-sector growth.
International recognition coupled with digital economy initiatives and the creation of an AI-powered entrepreneurship ecosystem are jointly geared toward making Qatar a well-diversified economy in the years to come.
(The author is a senior journalist based in Toronto, Canada)
