Davos, Switzerland – The nuclear talks between Iran and the United States are “are dead for now”, Vali Reza Nasr, an acclaimed Iranian-American scholar and author Dr Vali Reza Nasr, and Dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, told TRENDS in an exclusive interview.
Nasr shared his opinions on a range of topics, including the current state of US foreign policy, the nuclear deal with Iran, relations between Europe and Iran, and the Arab countries and Iran.
He noted that Iran’s demands to address issues outside of the nuclear deal have coincided with protests in the country, making it nearly impossible to conceive of a nuclear deal at this time. He also discussed relations between Europe and Iran, as well as the Arab countries and Iran, noting that the Arab countries have decided to manage Iran on their own, reducing tensions and engaging China and sometimes Russia in managing Iran.
Nasr also shared his thoughts on the leadership of Iran, suggesting that the policies of the Islamic Republic no longer have broad support inside the country, particularly among the young population. He believes that the economic crisis in Iran could lead to significant change, particularly if Khamenei passes from the scene, which could be the most significant event for the future of Iran.
Excerpts:
What is your opinion on the current state of the US foreign policy and the nuclear deal with Iran?
The nuclear deal hit an impasse in August 2022 when Iran demanded that issues outside of the deal be addressed, specifically an open file on its previous nuclear activity. This demand coincided with the start of protests in Iran, which changed the environment completely.
Internally, Iran is now focused on the protests and is not taking any steps. The degree of anger and sympathy for the protesters, particularly among the American and European public, makes it near impossible to conceive of a nuclear deal.
The focus of the (US President Joe) Biden administration is now on Iran’s role in Ukraine and the protesters, and the nuclear talks are dead for now.
How do you see the relations between Europe and Iran, and the Arab countries and Iran?
Relations with Arab countries are better than they were a year or two ago. For instance, the UAE and Kuwait have sent their ambassadors back to Tehran. Saudi Arabia and Iran have not had any other talks, but that partly was also because the Prime Minister of Iraq left office.
The Arab countries, particularly those in the Gulf, have a very different approach than America. They are not convinced that the United States is committed to the Middle East like it was before, so they have decided to manage Iran on their own. This means maybe reducing tensions but also engaging China and sometimes Russia in managing Iran.
The Arab neighbors of Iran have their own issues, significant issues with Iran, yet they no longer have attached their policy to American policy. They are basically following their own strategy about how to manage risk and danger in their own region.
Do you think the leadership of Iran is steering the country in the wrong direction? How do we find a balance?
The protests in Iran suggest that the policies of the Islamic Republic no longer have broad support inside Iran. The population is also not keen on paying the costs for those policies, which have involved isolation internationally. Iran’s economy is under tremendous pressure because of sanctions and is increasingly isolated from international forums and its neighbors.
It is evident that the young Iranian population is post-revolution in that sense. They do not identify with the anti-imperialist, anti-American ideology of the revolution. The Islamic Republic seems to have lost its population, and one big area that is lost is the population no longer viewing the cost of those policies as justified.
Do you see a different Iran post economic crisis?
I am not sure how it would look like as there are many factors involved. Economic factor, protestors, and the character of Iranian population as a whole.
There is a ruler who has ruled the country for 40 years, and has become the over source of authority. The moving of that leader out of the way and whoever replaces may create a period of change. It takes time for the ruler to consolidate power, which allows different factions and fragments to come forward.
Whoever is Khamenei’s successor, he may have a very different theory about managing the Iranian state and its population. It could be for the better, or it could be for the worse. Given also where Iran is today, Khamenei passing from the scene itself can be the most significant event for the future of Iran.
What is your opinion on the absence of Iran and Russia in this year’s Davos Summit?
The absence of key players does limit the effectiveness of the conversation, as it fails to include alternative viewpoints and the necessary parties needed to address the issues at hand. Fragmentation is not only political, but also economic, as divisions between North, South, East and West continue to grow.
This is indicative of the times we are in, where international law and globalization are fragmenting, and the unilateral dominance of the Arab American era is coming to an end.
Additionally, there is talk of new geo-strategic alliances, such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, GCC countries, who seek relationships with Russia, China, and the United States. It is important to have conversations around these issues.
Are you optimistic about the macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook for 2023?
On the economic front, there is a sense that the world economy will slow down in the coming year, which may be a short-term issue. There is optimism regarding Europe’s management of transatlantic relations and the progress being made in the Ukrainian war. However, there are still uncertainties surrounding the conflict in Ukraine, and there is growing concern regarding the direction of US-China relations, particularly with regards to the impact of decoupling on other nations caught in the middle.