JERUSALEM, Israel: The appointment of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as prime minister in what is seen as a consolidation of power en route to the throne is generally viewed with satisfaction in Israel, given his role as the pioneer of a warmer Saudi posture towards the Jewish state.
But three leading Israeli specialists on the Gulf told TRENDS that they do not expect Saudi Crown Prince to rush into open and formal diplomatic relations. However, a gradual and measured upgrading of relations is expected under him, according to Joshua Teitelbaum, a specialist on the Gulf and professor at Bar Ilan University near Tel Aviv.
“They still have the responsibility of leading the Muslim world and it’s not worth their while now,” Teitelbaum said.
“They don’t have a lot more to gain now by recognizing Israel. They can gain intelligence cooperation against Iran, access to more Israeli high tech and other cooperation behind the scenes. There will come a time when Israel says we can only go so far before you recognize us but that’s still a way off,” he added
Bin Salman, whom the US intelligence alleged to be involved in the Oct 2018 assassination of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, has been markedly rehabilitated in recent months as he met French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Joe Biden, who had vowed to treat Saudi Arabia as a pariah state over the killing.
In Teitelbaum’s view, Bin Salman could endorse Saudi moves toward Israel short of formal normalization, similar to the recent granting of permission for Israeli planes to overfly Saudi airspace.
One such move could be to permit Muslim citizens of Israel to fly directly to Saudi Arabia for the Hajj pilgrimage. Currently, they are required to travel through Jordan to get there.
Another possible move, he says, would be to open an interest section within the UAE or other Arab embassy in Israel.
‘Need to prepare people more’
Teitelbaum stresses that Saudi Arabia’s large population made up mostly of citizens rather than expatriates dictates a different policy on normalization than the UAE.
“The amount of convincing you have to do in the UAE is smaller, people tend to leave that kind of external politics to their leaders. And the history of the UAE is one of the merchants. So this is just business for them,” Teitelbaum said.
By contrast, he said in Saudi Arabia, “you have all this baggage, its history and its role as[ guardian] of the two holy places”.
“It’s not something that can just be switched like that. You have to prepare people more. So it’s gradual.”
In view of Brandon Friedman, director of research at the Dayan Center for the Middle East and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, Saudi Crown Prince is unlikely to make any dramatic move towards normalization while his father is still alive unless there is a meaningful Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
He does not want to be seen as abandoning the Palestinians, Friedman says.
Taking others along
He also would require Arab League’s backing.
According to Friedman, it was significant that Arab League and European Union representatives met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last month to discuss the Palestinian issue. Israel was not invited.
“Saudis would see advantages to advance a peace initiative where they are not alone. If the Arab League or an Arab collective is willing to normalize relations with Israel in the framework of a political process with the Palestinians that would give Saudis the cover they need to begin normalizing ties with Israel on a more official level,” Friedman said.
Bin Salman could present this process as a continuity of the original Saudi peace initiative of 2002 that was endorsed by the Arab League and called for a full Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories and the creation of a Palestinian state in exchange for full recognition of Israel by the Arab League countries. Israel did not take up the proposal.
There are doubts now as well whether Israel, which last year intensified its construction of West Bank settlements, would accept some sort of revival of the initiative.
“The question is whether there’s any politician with the political capital or will for that,” Friedman says.
Uzi Rabi, the director of the Dayan Center praised Bin Salman for overseeing a “revolution” in which positive ties with Israel play an integral part. ”
“He understands that after the Arab spring the geopolitical equation has changed dramatically and that when it comes to the Saudi future, Israel is marked in positive colors. He has come to the conclusion that Israel is not an enemy and backs this in words and deeds,” Rabi said.
But Rabi too agrees that “as long as the Palestinian saga is open, Saudi Arabia won’t have full normalization with Israel although it will have very effective cooperation in all other elements.”
‘People-to-people moving slowly’
Rabi stresses that not everyone in the kingdom is pleased with the overtures Bin Salman has made toward Israel.
“He knows that he has to be very cautious and make small-scale changes very gradually. But we are definitely moving in a positive direction.”
Meanwhile, Israeli relations with the UAE and Bahrain are flourishing, Rabi says, pointing to the rising volumes of trade and cooperation between universities and research centers.
He dismisses signs that the Abraham Accords don’t seem to be very popular with Emiratis.
A survey published a month ago by the Washington Institute for Near East policy showed that only 26 percent of Emirati respondents see positive regional effects from the Abraham Accords. While Dubai has become the eighth most popular travel destination for Israelis, very few Emiratis are visiting Israel.
Friedman says the survey should be taken seriously. While trade and economic links are exceeding expectations “people to people is moving more slowly than what people hoped”.
Recalling that hopes of a warm Israeli relations with Egypt did not materialize for various reasons, including Israel’s 1982 war in Lebanon and a lack of progress on the Palestinian issue, he has warned of a similar dynamic between Israel and the UAE.
“Emiratis are the first to remind us there is an expectation the Palestinian issue will be addressed. It’s a bit different than our style in Israel but they still care about and pay attention to public opinion,” Friedman said.