Distribution, delivery may pose a challenge to G7 vaccine pledge: WEF Digital Editor

• Vaccine manufacturing, patent protection, surplus doses disposal, cold storage needs a challenge

• So far, only slightly more than one in five people worldwide estimated to have had at least a single dose

An additional 870 million Covid-19 doses promised by the G7 have been hailed as a “big help” by the WHO, although the world body says “we need more”. But delivering even the promised 870 doses will not be an easy task, according to John Letzing, digital editor Strategic Intelligence, World Economic Forum (WEF).

Letzing wrote on the WEF website that an estimated 11 billion doses will be needed to vaccinate 70% of the global population and approach herd immunity – assuming that most vaccines require two doses. 

So far, however, only slightly more than one in five people worldwide are estimated to have had at least a single dose.

The initial effort made under COVAX, the UN-backed effort to ship vaccines to needy people in low and middle-income countries, has disappointed, Letzing said, although several endeavors were made, such as using camel riders in Kenya or delivering doses via drones in Ghana.

He cited Seth Berkeley, CEO of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, who said in March that the delay in delivery of as many as 90 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine made by the Serum Institute of India will be delayed through the end of April as India’s government grappled with a spike in cases.

Berkely had said “we are disappointed” by the delay.

Letzing said a dearth of vaccine manufacturing capacity has been blamed for shortfalls. 

“When COVAX’s supplier, the Serum Institute of India, was impacted by a devastating outbreak in that country and a subsequent vaccine export ban, there were no other options,” he said.

Besides, the wealthy countries opted to first secure doses for domestic use rather than promptly committing funds to COVAX. Only a change in the administration led the US to commit to the COVAX effort after the initial refusal, Letzing said.

Another challenge Letzing pointed out is that building up the sort of infrastructure needed to churn out Covid-19 vaccines as needed globally may take years.

Estimates for production this year range from about 9.5 billion doses to 12 billion, and UNICEF has estimated that capacity will top 43 billion doses next year.

But once a vaccine is made, Letzing said, demanding logistics and storage requirements can make it difficult to deliver.

Issues can arise during production, too, as was the case with the 15 million possibly contaminated doses of Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine that had to be discarded in March when flaws at a US plant were revealed.

The cold storage requirements of some vaccines developed at a relatively early stage have forced developing countries with warm climates to consider other alternatives, Letzing said. 

Another possible hurdle could be the expiry of surplus doses, which have been bought by the countries more than their needs. This may create pressure on vaccine supply chains, he added.

Patent protection is also a sensitive issue as countries are divided over waiving the protection.

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance – the primary organization behind COVAX – has argued that there’s no evidence to suggest patent protection is hindering the production of vaccines, Letzing writes.