The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) continues to be the most authoritarian region in the world according to International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy 2022 Report. During 2022, autocrats in the region have taken advantage of opportunities to extend their powers. Overall, the MENA region remains largely uneven, and the democracy and human rights situation looks bleak with little prospect of improvement in 2023.
1. New constitution and legislative election in Tunisia
Tunisia’s young democracy was considerably undermined by several events in 2022. The year before, President Kais Saied had suspended the parliament and large parts of the constitution, ultimately dissolving the parliament in March 2022. The President designed and controlled the process that led to the adoption of a new constitution, and the resulting text has empowered the President at the expense of the legislature and the judiciary. A new electoral law published in September was also heavily influenced by the President and shifts the country from a party-list based proportional representation system to single-member districts. Along with its other provisions, this new law radically diminishes the role of political parties. The December election for the legislature will be a bellwether for Tunisia’s democratic future. All signs point to the consolidation of power in the presidency — potentially deepening authoritarianism in a nation that was among the most promising democracies in the region.
2. Freedom of expression and the press under attack
Freedom of expression, for both media and regular citizens in MENA remained under attack. Government surveillance, internet shutdowns and crackdowns on online activity have intensified throughout 2022. Regimes continued to tighten their grip on media outlets, journalists, activists and ordinary citizens who take to social media to express their opinions, cracking down on those who challenge or threaten their power. Journalists have increasingly been targeted and killings indicate a gloomy outlook for freedom of expression across the region. Violence and impunity have endured, especially in Iraq and Syria as they continue to be among the worst 10 nations for press freedom worldwide and highest number of journalists killed in the region. A noteworthy case this year was the murder of prominent Palestinian Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh while she was covering an Israeli military operation in Jenin in May. Although an investigation revealed evidence showing the killing was deliberate, no one has been held accountable and Israel’s impunity persists.
3. New government in Iraq
Iraq has experienced a year of chaos with the resignation of MPs from the Sadrist bloc, sudden reversals, and dangerous confrontations that brought Iraq to the brink of civil conflict. After nearly 13 months of political stalemate, a new government was finally formed under the leadership of Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, improving prospects for reform and governmental efficiency. However, al-Sudani’s government could be short-lived. It remains to be seen if the Coordination Framework, Kurdish parties and Sunni parties will deliver on the agreements that led up to this fragile coalition. Unresolved disagreements between Iraq’s central government and autonomous Kurdish region, alongside entrenched financial and patronage interests, failing public services, a hollowing out of state institutions, and an ongoing demographic explosion present great challenges to al-Sudani that could impede his efforts.
4. Deepening economic and humanitarian crises
Throughout 2022, MENA countries have been struggling with the lingering economic effects of the pandemic, compounded by higher oil and food prices exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Much of the Middle East and North Africa is suffering severe food security challenges. The most affected countries in the region at present are Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, although Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Palestine and Tunisia are also impacted. Deepening dependence on aid, political instability and social unrest are to be expected in 2023 – with humanitarian repercussions that could lead to migration in the coming months. Citizens across the Middle East and North Africa are demanding economic opportunities, and good governance alongside human rights and democratization. Alongside continued protest in Iraq and Algeria, for nearly three months Iran has experienced the largest movement for basic rights and gender equality. Iranian society has been striving for democracy and freedoms for more than a century, but the Islamic political system prevents any adaptation and reforms.
5. Peace and conflict
Even before the conflict in Ukraine started, resolution to the conflict in Syria seemed hopeless, frozen between competing regional interests. Russian-supported Syrian authorities in Damascus and the opposition were barely on speaking terms in 2021, and in 2022 no meaningful discussions at all took place. In Libya, the United Nations attempted but ultimately failed to broker an agreement between the two rival parliaments that would have allowed for fresh elections to take place. In Yemen, there was some progress in April when Saudi Arabia and the Sanaa-based Houthi movement entered into a truce. That agreement expired in November 2022, leaving the country in an uncertain situation that is ‘neither peace nor war’ and it is unclear what the next step in the negotiations might be. Finally, in Israel and Palestine 2022 marks the deadliest year in the occupied territories in the last 15 years. Israel appears to be moving to cement its control over millions of Palestinians, denying them the opportunity to decide the rules that govern them. On the Israeli side, as a government is formed on the basis of the November election, the country is likely to have the its most right-wing government ever.
2023 Outlook
While Qatar’s hosting of the World Cup the first in the Arab region, there is little optimism that such global attention will steer towards democratic progress and protection of human rights in the region The social and economic environment generated by the rising cost of living could threaten the political status quo. Violent conflicts and fragile peace process will likely remain dominant in 2023. People want economic dignity and are desperately searching for a system of governance that can offer it and uphold citizens’ expectations about the social contract. However, the failures of the past suggest that democratization is not yet in the offing. The protests in
Iran that began in September and continued through the autumn captured the attention of foreign media, but their impacts in Iran and the region are yet to be seen. The early months of 2023 will be key to the longer-term significance of the protest movement.
Dr. Zaid al Ali is Senior Programme Manager, International IDEA. While co-author Dr. Alexander Hudson is Democracy Assessment Specialist at International IDEA, Maria Santillana is Associate Programme Officer at International IDEA.
The opinions expressed are those of the authors and may not reflect the editorial policy or an official position held by TRENDS.