Geneva, Switzerland — Geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the world’s most immediate risk in 2026, eclipsing armed conflict and climate extremes, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report published on Tuesday.
The report, which surveys more than 1,300 global leaders and experts, paints a bleak outlook for global stability, with half of respondents expecting the world to become “turbulent or stormy” over the next two years — a sharp deterioration from last year.
Trade disputes, sanctions, industrial policy battles and the weaponization of economic tools now top the risk rankings for 2026, cited by 18 percent of respondents as the most likely trigger of a global crisis. Interstate conflict followed closely, reflecting intensifying geopolitical rivalries and prolonged wars that continue to strain supply chains and diplomatic cooperation.
“A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest,” said World Economic Forum President and CEO Børge Brende, adding that global cooperation now “looks markedly different than it did yesterday.”
The report shows anxiety extending well beyond the near term. Looking ahead a decade, 57 percent of respondents expect the global environment to remain turbulent, while only 11 percent foresee stability or calm. Nearly 70 percent anticipate a fragmented or multipolar global order, underscoring declining confidence in shared governance frameworks.
Economic risks are also rising rapidly. Concerns over downturns, inflation, mounting debt and asset bubbles jumped sharply in the two-year outlook, as geopolitical tensions amplify financial volatility and weaken global growth prospects.
Technology-related risks are climbing just as fast. Misinformation and disinformation ranked second in the two-year horizon, while cyber insecurity placed sixth. Risks associated with artificial intelligence showed the steepest long-term rise, moving from near the bottom of near-term rankings to fifth place over the next decade, reflecting fears around labor disruption, security and social cohesion.
Societal pressures are compounding those risks. Societal polarization ranked fourth for 2026 and is expected to worsen, while inequality remained among the most interconnected risks globally, fueling political instability and economic fragility.
Environmental threats, while temporarily overshadowed by geopolitical and economic shocks, remain the most severe long-term dangers. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems dominate the 10-year outlook, with three-quarters of respondents predicting a turbulent environmental future.
“The age of competition is compounding global risks and weakening our collective capacity to respond,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum, warning that unchecked technology, rising debt and fragmentation could deepen future crises.
The findings come ahead of the Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, where leaders are expected to grapple with the challenge of managing escalating risks while rebuilding cooperation in an increasingly fractured world.
