Dubai, UAE — Global cereal production is expected to decline by 2% in the 2026/27 season to 2.982 billion tons, largely due to lower wheat harvests, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.
The projected decline follows a record 3.043 billion tons harvested in 2025/26, when global cereal output rose 6.1% from the previous season, helping lift world cereal stocks by an estimated 9.5%.
Despite lower production, global cereal utilization is forecast to increase by 0.6% in 2026/27, although at a slower pace than the 2.7% growth recorded in the previous season.
FAO said global cereal stocks are expected to contract marginally by 0.3%, mainly due to lower rice inventories, while the global cereal stock-to-use ratio is projected to remain broadly stable at 31.7%.
World cereal trade is forecast to decline 0.3% to 507.2 million tons after expanding 4.8% in 2025/26, as reduced wheat and barley shipments outweigh expected gains in maize and rice trade.
