United Nations, United States — The UAE’s COP28 faces the massive challenge of needing to close the emissions gap through a phase-out of fossil fuels, primarily oil and gas.
This could mean abruptly ending new coal power plants and charting an unprecedented path for a renewable energy revolution that triples global renewable capacity. This revolution aims to assist countries in developing policies and opportunities for a just energy transition.
However, a new report from the UN Environment Program (UNEP) revealed that governments are not aligned on this. Contrarily, they plan to increase fossil fuel production, even as 151 countries pledged to reach net-zero emissions.
UN 2023 Production Gap Report
Global government policies worldwide are projected to result in a doubling of production by 2030, according to the UN 2023 Production Gap Report.
The report indicates that top governments plan to produce around 110 percent more fossil fuels in 2030, which would make it nearly impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C. This level of production is 69 percent more than what would be consistent with a 2°C limit, a threshold with potentially catastrophic consequences for the planet.
The report states that government plans and projections would lead to an increase in global coal production until 2030, and in global oil and gas production until at least 2050, contrary to commitments made under the Paris Agreement at COP21.
“COP28 must send a clear signal that the fossil fuel age is out of gas. We need credible commitments to ramp up renewables, phase out fossil fuels, and boost energy efficiency while ensuring a just, equitable transition,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
Global CO2 emissions from the energy sector topped 37 billion tons in 2022, reaching record highs set to peak further this decade. The report calls for at least a 75 percent reduction in oil and gas production by 2050, compared with 2020 levels.
Pacific leaders speak up on fossil phase-out
A communiqué by the Pacific Island Forum Leaders’ recent meeting explicitly called for a transition away from coal, oil, and gas toward a just and equitable transition to a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific, but with caveats.
Australia and New Zealand, both fossil fuel producers and exporters, ensured the agreement excluded fossil fuel extraction and production. This is surprising, considering Australia’s ambition to host COP31. The communiqué states that New Zealand is currently considering canceling its ban on offshore drilling for oil and gas. Despite being a fossil fuel, Pacific leaders agree that natural gas, particularly LNG, is central to the global energy future due to its lower pollution levels compared to oil and coal.
Yet, at COP28, governments will face increased pressure to commit to a global plan to phase out coal, oil, and gas production.
Energy transition in Southeast Asia
The latest Southeast Asian Climate Outlook reflects positive perceptions about the transition away from fossil fuels, but social concerns have emerged. Transition-related job losses, coupled with the rising cost of living, are causing apprehension.
Over 66 percent of regional respondents believe that phasing out fossil fuels has long-term economic benefits, with only 8 percent disagreeing. A recent study by the International Renewable Energy Agency suggests that a robust energy transition could increase the region’s GDP by 3.4 percent and employment by 1 percent in the 2021-2050 period, compared to scenarios based on existing renewable energy goals.
Surprisingly, 51 percent of regional respondents, led by Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand, called for an end to fossil fuel subsidies. According to the IMF, fuel subsidies have surged to a record $7 trillion since 2015. Over 50 percent of the region’s respondents are highly concerned about rising energy prices and the ensuing cost of living expenses.
The report indicates that while the energy transition may affect energy costs in the short term, research shows potential savings of $160 billion in energy supply costs cumulatively by 2050. When considering savings to human health and environmental benefits, this figure could increase to a range of $508 billion to $1.5 trillion.
“Obviously I am strongly in favor of language that includes (a) phaseout, even with a reasonable time framework,” Guterres said in an interview before flying off to the United Arab Emirates, the oil-rich nation hosting the two-week UN climate summit beginning Thursday.
With nations’ actions falling far short of the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, some countries have called for the COP28 final statement, which requires unanimous agreement, to explicitly call for a reduction in fossil fuel consumption.
That would be a historic first for a COP statement, as the Glasgow 2021 climate conference was only able to agree on mentioning coal.
But for Guterres, who has made fighting climate change a major priority as secretary-general, a simple promise to reduce fossil fuels would not be enough.
“I think it would be a pity if we would stay in a vague and noncommittal ‘phase-down’ whose real meaning would not be obvious for anybody,” he said.
A phase-down “can be whatever, you never know exactly what it means — to phase out means that at a certain moment, it stops,” said Guterres.
He admitted however that nations “cannot stop tomorrow.”
“We need to do it in an organized way and we need to make sure that we have a time framework that is simultaneously credible but at the same time is in line with our objective to keep the temperature rise at 1.5 degrees.”
When asked about COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber, an Emirati official and CEO of the national oil company who has become embroiled in accusations of conflicts of interest, the UN chief said he had a “special responsibility” to influence the fossil fuel industry.
“He is of course linked to the oil business in his activities, but also linked to renewables, I think it creates with him a special responsibility,” said Guterres.
He said Al Jaber was in a better position to tell the oil industry that the “solution of the climate problems requires the phase-out of fossil fuels” than “if he was member of NGO with a very solid pro-climate record.”
“That will give him an opportunity to prove all those that accuse him wrong,” said Guterres, who added the allegations against Jaber would be “inconceivable” to him.
‘Triple renewable energies’
Another key issue at the COP28 is the development of renewable energies.
“We need to triple renewable at the global level,” Guterres said, and not just depend on the voluntary commitments of some states.
To that end, he hopes that COP28 will allow an advance in the idea of a “massive” global investment program in Africa, a continent that is experiencing an “absurdity,” he said since the continent has 60 percent of solar capacity yet only two percent of solar investment.
There are a “large number of other measures that are essential to make this COP28 a success,” he said, citing issues like climate justice.
Last year’s COP27 in Egypt allowed for further progress in that regard, with the creation of a fund intended to compensate for the “losses and damages” of countries especially vulnerable to climate impact that have historically been the least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions.
But getting that started is complicated, requiring the upcoming COP to give a boost to the fund with announcements of “meaningful contributions,” Guterres said.
With temperatures set to rise between 2.5 degrees Celsius and 2.9 degrees Celsius this century if nothing is done, the UN chief — who warned of a “total disaster” if temperatures rise three degrees — does not want to abandon the 1.5 degree objective, confident that technologies, and particularly renewable energies, will help achieve that goal.
“It is not dead, it’s alive,” Guterres said of the 1.5 degree goal.
“We have the potential, the technologies and the capacity and the money — because the money is available, it’s a question of making sure it goes into the right direction– to do what is necessary, not only to keep the 1.5 degrees alive, but alive and well,” he said.
“The only thing that is still lacking is political will,” he said, adding that the upcoming gathering will have to make the world realize that “we are really moving in a very wrong direction still.”
(With agency inputs)