Building an anticipatory governance strategy for an increasingly risky world

The world is undergoing a period of wrenching geopolitical transformation. As recent contentious exchanges between leaders of the US and Ukraine, Canada and Germany show, even the most tested international alliances are no longer fixed, but fluid. Instead, an unstable multipolar order is emerging, resulting in massive realignment and competing spheres of influence.

Rapid change seems to be happening everywhere all at once. And many of the transitions underway – accelerating climate change, record-breaking numbers of conflicts, the blistering pace of artificial intelligence (AI) development – are moving much faster than expected.

This new world of sharpening geopolitical competition is disrupting globalization. The threats to open flows are accumulating in the form of tariffs and trade wars, economic decoupling, technological splintering and rival security alliances. This threatens to deepen fragmentation, slow productivity and reduce growth.

Intensifying risks are also pushing the world into a post-globalization phase, with nation states resuming a more central role in shaping trade and alliances. Consider China and Russia’s evolving diplomatic, military and economic cooperation since 2022, or calls for a new reserve currency by some members of BRICS+ (an informal group of emerging economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, as well as five new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia). We are witnessing the development of new forms of re-globalization in real time.

At the same time, political support and foreign investment in humanitarian and development assistance is coming under immense pressure. The most extreme example of this is the US administration’s sweeping cuts to USAID, but other major donors such as the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland are also refocusing on domestic economic priorities, migration concerns and, especially, national defense. Even before the EU’s latest call to mobilize up to €800 billion for a defense package called ReArm, global military expenditures had already broken records.

Many philanthropic organizations will face the strain of aid withdrawal and the pressure to expand support to help their communities. But it’s not just charities, UN agencies, development banks and non-profits that could face catastrophic funding shortfalls. Financial institutions, energy companies and other businesses are also quietly dropping net-zero commitments and investments in mitigating and abating emissions due to the current political environment.

Of course, there are ways to reimagine development in a time of polycrisis to promote more localization and strengthen regional networks, but all this will be done in a significantly riskier environment.

In this new era, the most networked and agile states, firms and organizations will likely be the best prepared. So, a change of focus is needed to shift institutions from a state of reaction to one of anticipation, preparation and mitigation of crises before they spiral out of control.

By equipping themselves with anticipatory governance strategies, governments, businesses and non-governmental organisations, including the UN, will be better equipped to face the current complex risk landscape. This will help them to develop the foresight, innovation and agility needed to meet these volatile times.

The first step to anticipatory governance involves forecasting future threats. While not necessarily straight-forward or always possible, new AI tools are giving organizations a fighting chance.

Advances in predictive analytics and cost reductions mean we have the capacity to do decentralized prediction at scale. Risk modelling of social unrest and conflict is improving owing to the ability to track real world trends and social media sentiment. Climate models can now forecast which micro-regions will experience severe drought, food insecurity and displacement months and even years in advance. Detection algorithms can track disease outbreaks in real-time, allowing governments to act before a pandemic spirals out of control.

Despite these advances, early warning does not necessarily translate into early action. Whether the goal is to prevent conflict, pandemics or climate threats, bureaucratic inertia, fragmented decision-making and a lack of political will often delay responses.

Measures are needed to institutionalize early action at the international, national and subnational levels. The UN, for example, is well placed to take a leadership role and work with governments and other partners to ensure that “risk intelligence” becomes a core function of decision-making, not an afterthought. Steps are also needed to ensure that early interventions are triggered when critical risk thresholds are crossed.

The second step in developing anticipatory governance involves building local resilience. Prediction alone is insufficient – governments, companies and local organizations need the capacity to absorb and rebound from shocks. This means investing in resilient institutions, supply chains and safety nets that help prevent crises from cascading out of control.

Take the case of pandemics. The next global health crisis is not a matter of if, but when. Nations still lack pandemic preparedness systems that ensure the right resources are in place, however – from vaccine production to emergency logistics. As I wrote one year before the COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic protocols are urgently needed to ensure that critical medical stockpiles, financial reserves and rapid deployment teams are pre-positioned – before the next crisis hits.

Investments in resilience are needed across multiple domains, from climate to AI. Every year, extreme weather events wipe out decades of development progress. Governments need to move beyond disaster response and build climate-proof and nature-positive infrastructure such as flood-resistant cities, heat-adaptive agriculture and diversified energy grids.

This means working not just with states, but with cities, where innovation is already taking place. Likewise, AI-driven job displacement must be met with much more comprehensive planning, including proactive workforce policies. The UN is already helping public and private actors to build awareness and invest in mass retraining programmes, lifelong learning initiatives and universal basic income projects to prevent widespread economic dislocation.

The hardest but most important step toward anticipatory governance involves developing a culture and capacity to promote prevention.

Prevention is hard to sell precisely because it is so difficult to measure. But prevention is still the most cost-effective pathway to reduce the drivers of systemic risk, whether that’s governance failures, economic inequality, environmental stress or otherwise. After all, conflicts are less likely when institutions are robust, youth unemployment is low and if people feel included in political and economic decision-making. Countries with higher levels of equality are less prone to violent conflict and crime, and democratic backsliding.

In addition to building more just, inclusive and sustainable economies, investments are also needed in social cohesion. Polarization and disinformation can be weaponized by malicious actors to destabilize wealthy and poor societies alike. Some of the antidotes are well known: media literacy programmes, community-led peacebuilding and common sense technology regulations that prevent digital platforms from amplifying hate and division.

So, despite storm clouds gathering on the horizon, there is some positive news. Governments, companies and non-governmental organizations have access to the tools and know-how to meet this moment. AI-driven early warning systems, pandemic preparedness frameworks, climate-resilient infrastructure and inclusive economic policies can all improve how we govern systemic risk. But for these tools to be effective, anticipatory governance must be front of mind in boardrooms and government offices – from local to international levels.