Classified US-NATO Ukraine war plans wind up on social media

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A British armed forces instructor holds a Javelin anti-tank system as he speaks with Ukrainian recruits during combat training course in October 2022. AFP/File
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  • The leaked documents could provide valuable information to Russian war planners
  • The Pentagon is currently investigating who may have been behind the leak

Washington, United States – Top secret American and NATO war documents outlining plans to build up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russia have been leaked on social media.

Senior officials from the Biden administration have confirmed the authenticity of the documents, which have been posted on Twitter and Telegram, a platform widely available in Russia.

“We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter,” said Sabrina Singh, the deputy press secretary at the Pentagon.

The leaked documents, which appear as photographs of charts detailing anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and other plans, offer a significant breach of American intelligence and aid to Ukraine. The Pentagon is currently investigating who may have been behind the leak.

Military analysts have noted that the documents have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overestimating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed, suggesting an effort of disinformation by Moscow. 

However, the documents do not provide specific battle plans, and are five weeks old, offering only a snapshot of time.

The leaked documents could potentially provide valuable information to Russian war planners, field generals, and intelligence analysts, leading to a further escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Efforts are currently being made to delete the documents from social media channels, but as of Thursday evening, they had not been removed. 

The Pentagon has not publicly disclosed how fast Ukrainian troops are using American-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) munitions, but the leaked documents do provide this information.

For instance, one of the slides stated that 16,000 to 17,500 Russian soldiers had died, but up to 71,500 Ukrainian soldiers had perished. According to estimates from the Military and other researchers, Russia has suffered significantly more casualties than Ukraine, with close to 200,000 people dead and injured.

Analysts noted that some of the documents appeared to be authentic and would provide Moscow access to useful information, such as delivery schedules for troops and weapons, the size of the Ukrainian troop buildup, and other military specifics.

The document includes columns containing timetables for January through April which list Ukrainian troop units, equipment, and training. Twelve combat brigades are listed in the document, nine of which are reportedly being supplied and trained by the United States and other NATO allies. 

According to the records, six of those nine brigades would be ready by March 31 and the remaining by April 30. A Ukrainian brigade consists about 4,000 to 5,000 men.

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