LONDON, UK – Stock markets were mostly in wait-and-see mode on Monday as investors eyed the release this week of key US inflation data that could guide Federal Reserve plans for interest rates going into the new year.
Oil prices slid nearly two percent before cutting their losses as dealers awaited a delayed meeting of OPEC and its allies to decide over output levels.
With Wall Street seeing little action at the back of last week owing to the Thanksgiving break, traders had few catalysts to drive action, though analysts were upbeat about the end of the year.
“Although there isn’t much buying interest at the moment, it’s more notable that there still isn’t much selling interest,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare.
The Dow edged higher at the open, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq drifted lower.
The retreat in equities comes after a recent run-up across world stock markets fueled by bets the US central bank has finished lifting interest rates as inflation comes down and the jobs market comes off the boil.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with hiking rates continued to weigh on the dollar Monday.
The main focus this week is the release on Thursday of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation.
“These numbers will be closely scrutinized for insights into inflation trends and their potential implications for monetary policy decisions,” said SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes.
“While the current backdrop does not signify ‘mission accomplished’ in terms of addressing inflation, policymakers must now focus on planning for the next phase of the economic battle.”
Still, observers were upbeat about the outlook, with the latest weakness blamed on traders taking a breather after a strong month.
Tony Sycamore, at IG Group, said early December could see some selling as investors “rebuild energy and (look) to set up for the end-of-year fireworks”.
Others said a drop in Wall Street’s VIX “fear gauge” — a measure of equity volatility — to its lowest since January 2020 suggested investors were getting their mojo back.
Eyes are also on developments at OPEC after the group and its allies, notably Russia, delayed a meeting aimed at agreeing production quotas, with some African countries said to be baulking at Saudi Arabian calls for more cuts.
The group is thought to be close to reaching an agreement that could see the Saudis and Russia extend output reductions into the new year.
Crude prices have fallen in recent weeks as demand is seen coming down owing to slowing economies, particularly China’s, and the Middle East conflict appears to not have expanded to include other countries in the region.