INSEAD Day 4 - 728x90

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Middle East conflict drags global air travel demand lower

  • Excluding the Middle East, passenger demand would have risen 1.2%, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has said.
  • April jet fuel costs more than doubled, prompting airlines to rebalance capacity amid changing travel patterns worldwide.

Dubai, UAE — Global air passenger demand fell 3.4% in April from a year earlier as conflict in the Middle East sharply reduced traffic for regional carriers, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on Thursday.

Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), the industry’s measure of demand, declined 3.4% year-on-year, while available seat kilometers (ASK), a measure of capacity, fell 2.9%. The global load factor slipped 0.4 percentage points to 83.1%.

Excluding the Middle East, passenger demand would have risen 1.2%, IATA said.

International traffic fell 5.3% from April 2025, while capacity declined 5.1%. Domestic demand was unchanged from a year earlier, with capacity rising 0.8%.

“The 46.6% fall in demand for carriers in the Middle East due to war in the region was so acute that it dragged overall demand down 3.4%,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said.

“The situation for air transport remains highly volatile. The cost of jet fuel more than doubled in April, which is pushing airfares up. Forward schedule data is showing a reduced offering in the coming months, indicating that airlines are balancing high fuel costs and weaker demand,” he added.

Middle Eastern carriers recorded a 48.1% decline in demand and a 38.4% fall in capacity. Their load factor dropped 13.1 percentage points to 70.1%. IATA said traffic continued to be affected by the Iran war, although the decline eased slightly from March following the implementation of a ceasefire.

Elsewhere, Asia-Pacific airlines posted a 3.0% increase in demand, while European carriers reported 0.9% growth. Latin American airlines recorded the strongest increase at 8.9%, while African carriers reported a 2.2% rise. Demand for North American carriers was unchanged from a year earlier.