This is not only a regional crisis. It is a structural shock to the world economy, delivered at a moment of geoeconomic fragility. The longer it runs, the more lasting the damage becomes. First it hits oil, gas, shipping and aviation; then inflation, industrial costs and food security; and eventually trade routes, investment decisions and political stability, Robert Muggah Founder, Igarapé Institute writes.

The asymmetry at the heart of this war’s economic geography is stark. The US imports relatively little oil through Hormuz. More than 80% of oil and LNG shipped through the strait in 2024 went to Asian markets, with China, India, Japan and South Korea the primary destinations, he adds.