Geneva, Switzerland — Air passenger numbers are forecast to top five billion for the first time next year and the sector’s revenues will break the trillion-dollar barrier, the global aviation body IATA said Tuesday.
“Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2025, a 6.7 percent rise compared to 2024 and the first time that the number of passengers has exceeded the five billion mark,” the International Air Transport Association said in a statement.
Total industry revenues are meanwhile forecast at $1.007 trillion, helped by falling oil and fuel prices, “the first time that industry revenues top the $1 trillion mark,” it added.
Revenues will be up 4.4 percent from 2024, it said.
“All of this gives us a financial performance which I think is absolutely worth popping the champagne” after a post-pandemic bounce-back, IATA chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen told a news conference in Geneva.
IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh said in the statement that IATA expected profits of $36.6 billion despite “persistent supply chain challenges, infrastructure deficiencies, onerous regulation and a rising tax burden”.
IATA represents around 340 companies that account for 80 percent of world air traffic.
Airlines have been hit by rising fuel costs since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 but IATA said it expected this factor to ease next year, with the cost of jet fuel averaging $87 a barrel, down from $99 in 2024.
“Lower oil prices and resulting fuel costs are a major driver of improved prospects for airlines in 2025,” it said.
“Should these not materialize for any reason and considering the industry’s thin margins, the outlook could change significantly.”