Moscow, Russia — The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 by 130,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the previous estimate to 1.2 mln bpd, the organization said in an April report. In 2025, growth may slow down to 1.1 mln bpd.
According to the IEA, oil demand growth in Q1 2024 was lower than expected at 1.6 mln bpd, and the smallest since Q1 2023, due to unusually warm weather at the end of winter, which led to a greater decline in heating fuel consumption in OECD countries, TASS reported.
The IEA emphasized that decreasing global oil demand growth indicates consumption will peak in the current decade, which is primarily the result of normalization of growth after disruptions in 2020-2023, when oil markets were shaken by the COVID-19 pandemic and then the global energy crisis.
However, despite the anticipated decline, the current rate of oil demand growth is largely similar to the trend prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the report said.
Meawhile, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a statement that in 2025 global oil demand growth is expected to see a “robust growth of 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y.
The OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.7 mb/d, OECD said in a tweet.
