RIYADH – Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is not just resting on the laurels of Vision 2030, a transformative initiative that’s already reshaping Saudi Arabia’s economic fabric. With many of Vision 2030’s goals on the brink of realization, the Crown Prince is already hinting at a more audacious plan for the subsequent decade.
During a recent interview with Fox News, he offered a sneak peek into the future. “While we’re poised to meet many of the Vision 2030 targets by 2024, our next big reveal will be Vision 2040, which we aim to announce around 2027 or 2028,” he shared.
To provide some context, the Crown Prince had launched Vision 2030 back in 2016, primarily to pivot the Kingdom’s economy away from its heavy reliance on oil. Fast forward to 2023, and official Saudi records indicate that the combined value of real estate and infrastructure projects initiated post this vision’s announcement has surpassed a whopping $1.25 trillion. Additionally, the awarded projects alone account for $250 billion.
But this isn’t the first time the Crown Prince has spoken about Vision 2040. On April 28, 2021, during a media interaction aired on channels like Al-Ikhbariya, he alluded to Vision 2040 as the next phase of global competition for the Kingdom, following the successful implementation of Vision 2030.
When quizzed about the roadmap post-Vision 2030, Bin Salman had confidently stated, “While Vision 2030 has propelled us to an advanced standing, Vision 2040 is envisioned as our ticket to global competition.” He also expressed optimism about achieving many of Vision 2030’s objectives ahead of schedule.
Saudi economy at a glance Vision 2030 Progress: Many of its goals are nearing realization. Vision 2040 Announcement: Expected around 2027 or 2028. Economic Shift: From 2016 to 2023, Saudi Arabia initiated projects worth over $1.25 trillion to diversify from oil. Global Competition: Vision 2040 seen as the next phase of global competition for Saudi Arabia. Revenue Diversification: Vision 2040 aims to increase non-oil revenues beyond the current 50% target. Clean Energy: Focus on green hydrogen and clean energy sectors. Investment Goals: Enhance investment environment and increase foreign investments. Economic Aspirations: Saudi Arabia aims to be among the top seven global economies. Global Competitive Stage: Vision 2040 to position Saudi Arabia on the global competitive stage. Educational Achievement: Three Saudi universities ranked among the top 200 globally. Economic Recovery: Post Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia witnessed significant economic recovery and growth. Vision 2040's Blueprint: Aims for over 70% GDP from non-oil revenues, increase in private sector contribution, and attracting more than 100 million tourists annually.
When it comes to the content of the new vision, Bandar Al-Jaeed, a professor of economic media at King Abdulaziz University, anticipates that Vision 2040’s primary objectives will center around diversifying the Kingdom’s revenue streams. The aim is to elevate the contribution of non-oil revenues beyond the existing 50 percent target set by Vision 2030.
Speaking to Saudi Al-Sharq TV, Al-Jaeed elaborated, “The vision might zero in on ambitious endeavors in green hydrogen and clean energy sectors, positioning the Kingdom as a leading global resource in clean energy.”
Al-Jaeed envisions that Vision 2040 will set milestones like enhancing the investment environment and amplifying the influx of foreign investments. Furthermore, he believes that bolstering the technology and precision industries, coupled with a stronger focus on research and development, will play a pivotal role in diversifying Saudi Arabia’s income streams, moving away from oil-centric revenues. The economist also sees the sports sector as a cornerstone in the strategy to boost the tourism and entertainment industries.
So, what exactly is the endgame for 2040?
Muhammad Maknai, a professor of economics at Imam Muhammad bin Saud University, shed light on this in a conversation with the U.S.-based Bloomberg economic channel. “The essence of Vision 2040 is a testament to our commitment to realizing our objectives, backed by thorough research, well before 2030,” Maknai remarked.
He added, “We’ve already surpassed many of the benchmarks set for 2030, and numerous initiatives under the vision are still in motion.”
“Consider Vision 2030 as just the prologue,” he continued. “Realizing its objectives signifies that the Saudi economy will continue to rank among the world’s elite. In fact, we aspire to be among the top seven global economies, which might very well be the crux of the plan.”
Maknai emphasized that while Vision 2030 was crafted to elevate the Saudi economy to unprecedented heights, Vision 2040 aspires to pitch the Kingdom’s economy as a formidable global contender.
He pointed out, “Our current discourse revolves around bolstering infrastructure, logistics, systems, legal frameworks, and human resource quality in the Kingdom. These are clear indicators of the swift advancements the nation has made.”
He underscored that the overarching objective, whether it’s Vision 2030 or the subsequent Visions 2030 and 2040, remains consistent: “To ensure sustainability and foster exponential growth for the Saudi economy.”
Global competition stage
Saudi businessman and economist, Khalid bin Hazza Al-Sharif, delved into the topic of Vision 2040 in an article for the local newspaper Okaz in May 2021. He emphasized that this vision would propel the Kingdom’s economy onto the global competitive stage.
Speaking of the vision’s content, Al-Sharif noted, “Saudi Arabia has made significant strides in international competitiveness, positioning the Kingdom among the world’s leading nations. These advancements are ushering the Kingdom into a new developmental phase, aiming for an enhanced quality of life. This includes the notable achievement of placing three Saudi universities among the top 200 globally.”
He went on to say, “These ambitions and aspirations outline a strategic roadmap for Saudi Arabia, capitalizing on our social, demographic, and economic strengths.”
Reflecting on the trajectory, he added, “Post the success of Vision 2030, as we approach 2040, with the unwavering political commitment to development and the solidarity of Saudis behind our leadership, we are poised to master both planning and execution.”
Highlighting the nation’s progress, the Saudi businessman remarked, “Ever since the launch of Vision 2030, our country has been on a recovery trajectory. We’ve seen transformative developments that have consistently enriched the Kingdom, marked by the initiation of significant projects that not only generate millions of jobs but also magnetize global investments.”
Al-Sharif is optimistic that Vision 2040 will champion greater market accessibility, safeguard national industries, foster free trade agreements, and undertake myriad initiatives that would elevate the Kingdom’s position in global economic rankings.
He views Saudi Arabia as a colossal workshop in motion, with Vision 2040 seamlessly following and building upon the foundations laid by Vision 2030.
Anticipated triumph
In April 2021, Abu Bakr Al-Deeb, an expert in economic affairs and international relations, shared his insights with the Saudi newspaper, Al-Bilad, regarding the objectives of Vision 2040 and its potential to metamorphose the Kingdom into a formidable economic powerhouse.
Al-Deeb expressed confidence that with the rollout of Vision 2040, Saudi Arabia is poised to dominate the Middle Eastern economic landscape and even vie for a top spot on the global stage. He underscored Riyadh’s potential to spearhead political, economic, and security initiatives across the Arab and Islamic regions.
Drawing parallels, Al-Deeb opined that the triumphs of Vision 2030 would likely be reflected in Vision 2040, given the presence of consistent driving factors: a robust political will, the nation’s developmental aspirations, and the unwavering unity of its citizens behind their leadership.
He highlighted the Crown Prince’s proclamation about Vision 2040, envisioning it as a phase of global rivalry post the realization of Vision 2030’s objectives. This, Al-Deeb believes, “demonstrates the presence of all the right ingredients for success.”
Emphasizing the role of the populace, he reiterated the Crown Prince’s sentiment that the citizens are Saudi Arabia’s most valuable asset in achieving its grand vision.
The economic scholar noted that the Saudi economy is already on an upward trajectory, thanks in part to the fiscal and monetary reforms ushered in by Vision 2030.
Broadly speaking, Vision 2040 is set to be a visionary strategic blueprint aimed at bolstering economic growth, fostering social advancement, and enhancing the Kingdom’s global stature. This ambitious plan is designed to complement the objectives of Vision 2030, which envisions a thriving society where every citizen leads a prosperous and dignified life, diversifies and optimizes the economy, and positions the nation as a global frontrunner.
Key goals of the new vision include amplifying non-oil revenues to account for over 70% of the GDP, bolstering the private sector’s contribution, and magnetizing foreign investments. Additionally, there’s a focus on tourism expansion, with an aim to attract upwards of 100 million visitors annually, aligning with the targets set by Vision 2030.