Beirut, Lebanon – Lebanon’s Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Friday will break weeks of silence since war broke out between Hamas and Israel, in a speech that could impact the region as the Gaza conflict rages.
After Hamas militants launched an unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip, Lebanon’s southern border has seen escalating tit-for-tat exchanges, mainly between Israel and Hizbollah, an ally of the Palestinian group, stoking fears of a broader conflagration.
The cross-border attacks heated up Thursday, as Israel responded with a “broad assault” after Hizbollah attacked 19 Israeli positions simultaneously, according to the group.
Rockets also hit the Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona near the border in a barrage claimed by the Lebanese section of Hamas’s armed wing.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has warned that “the region is like a powder keg” and that “anything is possible” if Israel does not stop attacking Gaza.
US President Joe Biden has sent two aircraft carrier groups to the eastern Mediterranean and warned Hizbollah and others to stay out of the conflict.
“We’ve got significant national security interests at play here,” US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.
“I don’t believe we’ve seen any indication yet specifically that Hizbollah is ready to go in full force. So we’ll see what he has to say.”
Nasrallah’s highly anticipated speech will be broadcast as part of an event in Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hizbollah stronghold, at 3:00 pm (1300 GMT) on Friday, in memory of fighters killed in Israeli bombardments.
On the Lebanese side, more than 70 people have been killed — at least 50 of them Hizbollah fighters but also other combatants and civilians, one a Reuters journalist, according to an AFP tally.
On the Israeli side, nine people have died — eight soldiers and one civilian, the army says.
‘Red line’ factors
Some analysts believe that Hizbollah has little interest in becoming fully embroiled in a conflict that Israeli officials have threatened could destroy Lebanon.
Others say the decision lies with Iran, which leads the regional “axis of resistance” against Israel, which alongside Hizbollah includes armed groups from Syria, Iraq and Yemen, some of which have attacked Israel and US interests in the region in recent weeks.
But Amal Saad, a Hizbollah expert at Cardiff University, said: “Hizbollah is not a proxy of Iran, it’s an ally of Iran… Hizbollah doesn’t need anyone’s permission to intervene.”
“Hizbollah has much more experience obviously fighting Israel than Iran does — Iran has not had a direct confrontation with Israel,” Saad added.
Hizbollah on Wednesday published a letter from its fighters addressed to Palestinian groups in Gaza, saying they had their “finger with you on the trigger… to support Al-Aqsa mosque and our oppressed brothers in Palestine”.
The Muslim group has mainly restricted itself to targeting Israeli observation posts, military positions and vehicles near the border as well as drones, using what it says have been anti-tank missiles, guided missiles and even surface-to-air missiles.
Israel has responded by bombing sites along the border, while drones have targeted fighters near the frontier.
The border tensions have revived memories of Hizbollah’s devastating 2006 war with Israel that killed more than 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 160 in Israel, largely soldiers.
‘Death blow’ warning
Hizbollah receives financial support as well as weapons and equipment from Iran, and has built up its powerful arsenal since 2006.
For years, Nasrallah has boasted that his group’s weapons could reach deep into Israeli territory.
“Each side is carefully measuring its actions and reactions to avoid a situation that may spin out of control and spread to the region,” said Michael Young from the Carnegie Middle East Center.
But if Hizbollah fully entered the war, “Lebanon’s devastation would turn most communities, perhaps even large segments of the Shiite community”, against it, he warned last week.
In Lebanon, those both for and against expanding the war are holding their breath for Nasrallah’s speech.
“We are waiting impatiently… We hope he will announce war on the Israeli enemy and the Western countries that support it,” said Ahed Madi, 43, from the border town of Shebaa.
Rabih Awad, 41, from the southern town of Rashaya al-Fokhar, said a new war between Hizbollah and Israel “would be a death blow for Lebanon”, which is grappling with a crushing economic crisis.
“I am against the war of extermination on the Palestinians in Gaza,” he told AFP.
“But the decision to go to war must be taken by the Lebanese state, not a party or a militia.”