Dubai, UAE — Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia (MECA) is projected to decline from 5.4 percent in 2022 to 2.5 percent in 2023, with a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook update.
The decline is attributable mainly to a steeper-than-expected growth slowdown in the region’s biggest economy, Saudi Arabia, from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 1.9 percent in 2023, a negative revision of 1.2 percentage points.
The downgrade for Saudi Arabia for 2023 reflects production cuts announced in April and June in line with an agreement through OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Russia and other non-OPEC oil exporters), the update said.
Private investment, including from “giga-project” implementation, continues to support strong non-oil GDP growth in the Kingdom.
Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024.
While the forecast for 2023 is modestly higher than predicted in the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO), it remains weak by historical standards.
The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation continues to weigh on economic activity. Global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.8 percent in 2023 and 5.2 percent in 2024. Underlying (core) inflation is projected to decline more gradually, and forecasts for inflation in 2024 have been revised upward, IMF said.
