Dubai, UAE— Like the rest of the world, the Middle East, too, is caught up in the buzz around chatbots like ChatGPT, albeit with a twist. The dangers are manifold for the GCC labor market as the six-nation body heavily relies on foreign labor force and about 10 million jobs are at risk owing to new technologies and automation.
With the advent of the natural language processing (NLP) platforms coupled with generative artificial intelligence (G.A.I) such as ChatGPT, Bard or LaMDA, the most at risk are the low and middle level executives from countries such as India, Pakistan, Philippines,Lebanon, Egypt Jordan and the United Kingdom.
Since the 1950s, the GCC has relied on foreign workforce for building large-scale infrastructure projects. However, the fast-paced economic development also attracted white collar executives and office workers.
Today, 70 percent of the employed workforce in the six Arabian Gulf countries are expatriates, says Washington D.C.-based Woodrow Wilson International Center in a labor report. Out of the total GCC population of 56.4 million, about 26.94 million are foreign workers – a whopping 47.7 per cent. Several reports suggest that around 55 percent of the foreign workers are blue collar workers – manual and unskilled labor.
Basic calculations based on profession reveal that around 10 million jobs, mostly mid-level office jobs, held by foreign workers in the GCC are at risk due to the impact of smart NLPs, G.A.I. and automation in the next five to 10 years.
According to the World Economic Forum, some of the jobs positions that are at risk are: bank tellers and related clerks, data entry clerks, administrative and executive secretaries, bookkeepers and accountants, finance and insurance clerks. Other think-tanks also include customer service agents, travel agents, receptionists, low and middle-level roles in the trading, investment, and finance sectors, teachers, market research analysts, and stockbrokers. Several legal, media and technology roles will be gone forever.
From media houses to businesses, everyone is awestruck by the transformative powers of G.A.I., the technology that powers chatbots. Beyond the buzz, the impact would be both positive and negative. As per Goldman Sachs, the advances in natural language processing work their way into businesses and society, they could drive a 7% (or almost US$7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period.
Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani wrote in a report last month that despite significant uncertainty around the potential for generative AI, its ability to generate content that is indistinguishable from human-created output and to break down communication barriers between humans and machines reflects a major advancement with potentially large macroeconomic effects.
However, more than 65% of occupations are likely to be partially or fully automated, the Goldman Sachs economists wrote, adding that a new wave of A.I. systems may also have a major impact on employment markets around the world. Shifts in workflows triggered by these advances could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation.
While technology is gaining a wide following across the world, there are voices as well emerging now warning of great dangers from the technology to the human race.
So, what exactly is it about the chatbots that polarizes the debate? Many critics feel it can never replace the genius of human mind, but many of its supporters see big advantages in it.
Albert Meige, Associate Director of Arthur D. Little, believes its potential to transform work can be advantageous for all. Speaking to TRENDS, he said: “The positive aspects of generative AI can be performance improvement, efficiency, and cost reduction, and its effects on businesses would be improved customer services, in which ChatGPT enhances customer service by responding instantly to customer inquiries, complaints, and concerns. This means that businesses don’t have to wait for customer service representatives to attend to clients, resulting in a faster resolution of issues.”
For businesses, chatbots can reduce costs associated with recruiting, hiring, and training new customer service staff. They can simultaneously handle large volumes of customer inquiries, reducing the need for more workforce.
ChatGPT, at the same time, can improve efficiency by automating routine customer-service tasks. Employees can focus on other essential tasks, such as strategy development and decision-making.
While the technology has many positive benefits, many experts warn of its dangers as well.
“While AI chatbots like ChatGPT can be helpful in providing quick answers or guidance, they lack the human touch of empathy and understanding that a human customer service representative or therapist can offer,” said Meige.
Unlike human mind, chatbots have a very limited understanding to process or analyze information, since it might not always be able to understand or contextualize complex questions or nuanced emotions. The quality of responses can be limited by the data and training on which the model was built.
Many believe there are privacy concerns associated with the use of chatbots since they rely on internet connectivity and cloud services. “There is always a risk of data breaches or privacy concerns when sharing personal information or sensitive topics over online platforms.”
Experts fear the technology will make human beings more reliant on AI chatbots and lose the ability to think critically or develop interpersonal skills needed to handle certain situations or problems.
On the other side of the technology divide several argue that the technology could be a great boon for several businesses. Its power to generate content can improve data—since businesses will be able to collect data based on customer interactions—which can then be used to improve customer service, identify market trends, and develop new products and services.
Moreover, chatbots will increase customer engagement since it provides a personalized chat experience to clients, which can increase engagement and user satisfaction. This, in turn, can drive loyalty and retention.
The misuse of technology by scammers has already begun to cause concern among the adherents of chatbots and its opponents as well. Palo Alto Networks has detected an increase in the number of attacks impersonating ChatGPT. The fraudsters seek to take advantage of the use of wording and domain names that may seem to link to the site.
Between November 2022 and early April 2023, Palo Alto Networks noticed a 910 percent increase in the monthly registration rate of internet addresses associated with ChatGPT.
During the same time frame, the company witnessed an average growth of 17,818 percent in attempts to electronically steal internet addresses associated with ChatGPT. The attempts were made through the security records of domain-name systems and recorded daily the discovery of about 118 suspicious e-mail addresses that appear to be associated withChatGPT.
In order to gauge opinion of people across the Middle East on how they see the rise of chatbots, TRENDS conducted a poll on Twitter, asking its followers whether anyone should avoid using chatbots such as ChatGPT.
Most of the responders (37 percent) didn’t think anyone should avoid using ChatGPT and similar AI platforms, while 26 percent believed that news media should avoid it.
Moreover, 25 percent of the respondents believe educational institutions should avoid AI platforms, and only 12 percent think creative writers should avoid them.
The top respondents were from Bahrain (25.6 percent), followed by Qatar (25 percent), Lebanon (24.1 percent), UAE (22.7 percent), and then Saudi Arabia (2.6 percent only).
Most of the respondents were men(63.9 percent) and 36 percent were women.
Furthermore, respondents were mainly from the age 20 to 29 years old (46.4 percent), followed by the age range 30 to 39 years (38.6 percent), then 40 to 49 years (10.3 percent), and only 4.7 percent were above 50 years old.
(With inputs from Marcelle Mohamed)