Dubai, UAE — OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to raise oil production by a combined 188,000 barrels per day from August, extending its gradual supply increases as Gulf producers recover from months of export disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
Energy ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed during a virtual meeting to implement the production adjustment from August 2026, the group said in a statement.
The decision comes after Gulf producers sharply curtailed output during the conflict in the Middle East, when Iran’s disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted exports. Combined production by Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait fell by around six million barrels per day between the first quarter of 2026 and May, according to OPEC data.
Traffic through the strategic waterway has gradually recovered since Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding on 17 June aimed at restoring maritime navigation while broader negotiations continue. Oil prices have since retreated towards pre-war levels as markets anticipate a steady return of Gulf supplies.
However, analysts say production remains below OPEC+ targets because restarting shut-in oilfields is a gradual process.
Giovanni Staunovo, commodities analyst at UBS, told AFP that production was “probably still below” the group’s quotas. Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said output should improve during July, with a stronger recovery expected in August as shipping normalises.
The output increase also comes as analysts warn OPEC+ could face renewed pressure from oversupply next year. Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon said markets are already expecting a surplus in 2027 once inventories depleted during the conflict are replenished.
The group may also face internal tensions over future production quotas. Iraq has already requested higher output limits to compensate for losses suffered during the conflict, although analysts say the issue is more likely to be addressed during OPEC+’s scheduled 2027 production baseline review at the end of this year.
