The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is “not just a regional disruption” but “a structural shock to global trade” that could permanently reshape logistics and supply chains across the Gulf region, a new report by PwC has warned.
In its report titled The day after Hormuz: A defining moment for logistics in the Gulf, the consultancy said the crisis is accelerating “significant structural shifts” already underway in the region, especially the reconfiguration of trade corridors and a growing emphasis on resilience over efficiency.
“Optimizing for resilience, not just efficiency, is becoming the new paradigm for the Gulf states and their trade logistics,” the report stated.
The report noted that about “US$650 billion in trade flows are affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” representing “around 2% of global trade and about 25% of seaborne oil shipments,” citing UN Trade and Development data. It further warned that if instability spreads to the Bab el-Mandeb choke point in the Red Sea, “a further 12% of global maritime trade could be at risk.”
According to the report, the disruption marks “a pivotal moment for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states,” whose logistics systems were historically “optimized for efficiency, supported by strong connectivity and competitive cost structures.”
However, the present crisis has “introduced binding physical constraints on regional trade flows” and made “resilience the primary currency of competitiveness, ahead of efficiency,” it said.
“With access through Hormuz disrupted, flows are being redirected through accessible gateways and inland routes, often at higher cost and with longer transit times,” the report observed, adding that “shipping lines are adapting their networks accordingly, prioritizing continuity of service.”
The report emphasized that the impact is uneven across the Gulf because “their exposure differs depending on their geography and their access to alternative corridors.” Countries more dependent on Gulf-facing maritime routes are “feeling the disruptive impact more immediately,” while others have partial or full access to alternative gateways on the Arabian Sea or Red Sea.
“These structural differences are shaping how flows are being adjusted in the short term and how logistics systems will likely evolve over time,” the report added.
The consultancy argued that for policymakers and business leaders in the GCC, the current situation should be seen as “a transformation to be led.”
“The countries that succeed will be those that move decisively, building integrated corridors, strengthening regional connectivity, and anchoring their role within more resilient global supply chains,” it said.
The report predicted that “logistics competitiveness will move away from individual ports toward integrated corridors,” describing the future as “multi-modal systems that combine maritime, land, and rail infrastructure.”
For the United Arab Emirates, the report said the shift presents an opportunity “to evolve from a port-centric model toward a fully integrated, network-based logistics system.”
It highlighted the importance of expanding east-coast gateways such as Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, while developing “a ‘virtual terminal’ across the UAE port system to enable more seamless inter-port operations.”
The report also called for strengthening hinterland integration through projects such as Etihad Rail and Hafeet Rail to support “efficient sea–rail–land flows linking ports to inland demand centres across the UAE and into Saudi Arabia.”
On Saudi Arabia, the report said Riyadh could “expand its role by leveraging its Red Sea access and developing integrated sea–land corridors linking its western ports to domestic and GCC markets.”
It identified projects around Neom and Yanbu as crucial to building “robust logistics ecosystems.”
The report further stated that Saudi Arabia is “uniquely positioned to de-risk its logistics system by increasing use of alternative maritime corridors, particularly in East Africa.” Investments in nodes such as Djibouti, it said, “can provide greater control over routing options and reduce reliance on vulnerable choke points.”
Meanwhile, Oman was described as being “well positioned to strengthen its role as a stable and reliable gateway outside Hormuz.”
The report said Oman could build “a coordinated multi-port system anchored around Salalah and Sohar” while potentially developing Duqm “as a strategic overflow and optionality node.”
For other GCC states such as Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, the report recommended deeper integration into regional logistics corridors, including “expanding cross-border trucking capacity” and establishing “streamlined border processes to ensure reliable inland flows.”
Over time, the report said these countries could improve resilience by “diversifying sourcing strategies,” accelerating investments in multimodal connectivity, and embedding themselves “within a more interconnected GCC logistics network that reduces reliance on single access points.”
