INSEAD Day 4 - 728x90

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Oil prices may hit $380 a barrel if Russia lowers crude output

In the worst-case scenario, if the output is cut by 5 million barrels, the price could reach as high as $380 a barrel.
  • According to JPMorgan analysts currently Russia enjoys a strong financial position and it can afford to slash daily crude production by 5 million barrels
  • It was after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that the Western allies led by the US imposed several sanctions, and worked out a complicated mechanism to cap the price fetched by Russia

Global oil prices may hit $380 a barrel if Russia were to announce crude oil cuts in retaliation for the US and European curbs.

This warning was sounded out by JPMorgan Chase & Co. According to JPMorgan analysts currently Russia enjoys a strong financial position and it can afford to slash daily crude production by 5 million barrels.

It was after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that the Western allies led by the US imposed several sanctions, and worked out a complicated mechanism to cap the price fetched by Russian oil.

The analysts noted that Russia’s crude production cuts could be disastrous for the world, as a cut of 3 million barrels will elevate London crude prices to $190. In the worst-case scenario, if the output is cut by 5 million barrels, the price could reach as high as $380 a barrel.

“The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might choose retaliate by reducing exports as a way to inflict pain on the West,” wrote the analysts.