Geneva, Switzerland — The global economic outlook has improved modestly but remains fragile, with debt burdens, volatile asset valuations, trade realignments and the rapid rollout of artificial intelligence posing fresh risks, the World Economic Forum said on Thursday.
In its latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, the WEF said 53 percent of surveyed economists expect global economic conditions to weaken in the year ahead, down from 72 percent in September 2025, signalling cautious optimism amid persistent uncertainty.
“Governments and companies will have to navigate an uncertain near-term environment with agility while continuing to build resilience,” said Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the World Economic Forum, pointing to artificial intelligence, rising debt and shifting trade patterns as defining forces for 2026.
AI-linked asset valuations are a key concern. A slim majority of economists, 52 percent, expect U.S. AI-related stocks to decline over the next year, while 40 percent anticipate further gains. Nearly three-quarters said a sharp fall would have spillover effects across the global economy. Cryptocurrencies face weaker prospects, with 62 percent expecting further declines, while more than half believe gold prices have peaked.
Despite the risks, economists expect AI to deliver productivity gains unevenly. Around four in five anticipate measurable improvements within two years in the United States and China, led by the information technology sector. Large companies are expected to benefit sooner than smaller firms.
The employment impact of AI remains contested. Two-thirds of respondents foresee modest job losses over the next two years, while views diverge sharply over the longer term.
High debt levels are also reshaping policy choices. Defence spending is almost universally expected to rise, while economists anticipate cuts to environmental protection budgets in both advanced and emerging economies. Many expect governments to lean on higher inflation and tax increases to manage debt, particularly in emerging markets.
On trade, economists see further fragmentation. Most expect U.S. technology export restrictions on China to persist or tighten, alongside more bilateral and regional trade deals.
Growth prospects vary widely by region. South Asia leads expectations, driven by India, while Europe faces the weakest outlook. The U.S. outlook has improved modestly, and China’s prospects remain mixed, the survey showed.
