By Irfan Bidiwala
The Gulf has long held a position as a global hub for capital, technology and energy. Recent months have tested that position, but the question is less about whether the region recovers than about how quickly it converts its structural strengths back into momentum.
What makes the moment demanding is the number of forces converging at once. Alongside the geopolitical disruption, businesses are navigating rapid advances in AI, shifting trade dynamics and supply chain complexity. These pressures are not isolated. They are increasingly connected, shaping how companies grow, invest and make decisions. It is exactly this convergence that led us to begin tracking disruption at AlixPartners seven years ago, and why understanding it matters even more today.
Our latest Disruption Index reflects how executive mindset is shifting. The global average score, based on responses from over 3,200 senior executives across 11 countries and 10 industries, declined by three points from 73 in 2025 to 70 in 2026. The decline tells an important story. Executives are no longer treating disruption as a temporary shock to weather but as a permanent operating condition to navigate.
Nowhere is that shift clearer than in the Gulf, where governments have shown how much the fundamentals still matter: clarity of direction, disciplined implementation, faster decision-making and a focus on what can be controlled. That approach has steadied the wider economy and given businesses the confidence to keep investing. The International
Monetary Fund’s latest projections point to moderate growth for the UAE and Saudi Arabia in 2026 before a stronger 2027, reflecting near-term pressure alongside confidence in the structural progress underway.
The same orientation shows up in our own data. When we surveyed regional executives, 77 percent described business transformation as an ongoing part of how they operate rather than a project with a fixed endpoint. That is a meaningful shift.
Businesses in the Gulf are building adaptability into the core of how they run.
What sets the region apart is that it entered this period with long-term national strategies already in motion, supported by government coordination, capital availability and infrastructure that few markets can match. That foundation matters as preparation becomes a competitive advantage.
The difference between the companies that grow and those that stall will come down to the decisions leaders make now, not the conditions handed to them. Growth, in other words, is a choice.
But what are the “no-regret moves,” as we refer to them here at AlixPartners, that the best leaders can take today? Practical, near-term actions that support long-term strategy. These include:
1. Develop a resilient financial foundation – balance sheet, P&L, and cash flows – capable of absorbing shocks and rigorously stress-tested against multiple disruption scenarios.
2. Build an AI-enabled, core-focused lean organization that operates on its distinctive strengths and can orchestrate a coordinated, real-time response to disruption.
3. Establish a competitive, resilient supply base, supported by strategic inventory reserves, with the ability to respond to supply disruptions in real time.
4. Develop end-to-end visibility coupled with dynamic pricing capabilities that rapidly balance margin protection and growth, adjusting to input costs, supply disruptions, and product shortages across scenarios.
5. Cultivate diversified go-to-market models that secure product continuity for customers across disruptions.
6. Capitalize on opportunities created by disruptions and supply–demand imbalances to unlock new growth areas.
Investing in these areas may, in some cases, incur additional costs, which is a significant challenge given the already difficult financial situation. Therefore, the organization must be underpinned by a cost-conscious, lean culture backed up with decisive actions that free up resources and capital from ‘non-core’ areas to transition towards an adaptively resilient business model.
The business leaders who will emerge strongest from this period will be those who act now rather than wait, and who can manage complexity with clarity – whether that is geopolitical risk, supply chain pressure, or fast-moving technological change. The challenge now is not to wait for stability to return. It is to make the decisions that keep the business growing through whatever comes next.
(Irfan Bidiwala is the Middle East Market Lead for the global consulting firm AlixPartners)
