Vienna, Austria — OPEC has revised world oil demand growth for 2024 down by 106 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) from last month’s assessment, expecting it to grow by about 1.9 million barrels per day, y-o-y.
According to the organization’s October report, the total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 105.6 mb/d in 4Q-24, to average 104.1 mb/d in 2024, bolstered by strong air travel demand and road mobility, including trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities, primarily in non-OECD countries, added the report.
According to the monthly publication, oil demand in the Middle East is expected to expand by an average of 265 tb/d, y-o-y, in 4Q-24.
For 2024, it said, the Middle East oil demand is forecast to grow by 200 tb/d to average 8.8 mb/d. Regional economic activity is expected to remain healthy in 1Q-25, as 2025 GDP growth rates are forecast to surpass those of 2024. In addition, air travel is expected to fully recover and surpass pre-pandemic levels.
Gasoline, transportation diesel and jet/kerosene are expected to lead oil demand growth, which is expected to stand at 249 tb/d, y-o-y, in 1Q-25. Overall, in 2025, the Middle East is expected to see y-o-y growth of 249 tb/d, averaging 9.1 mb/d.
Refinery capacity additions in non-OECD countries – mostly in China and the Middle East – are also expected to contribute to oil demand growth. The global growth forecast is subject to uncertainties, including global economic developments, the monthly report noted.
For 2025, global oil demand growth is revised down by 102 tb/d in some sub-regions of the non-OECD. Accordingly, oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.6 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 105.8 mb/d.
Within the regions, OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD region is projected to drive growth by 1.5 mb/d, y-o-y.
